RAM prices are cooling. Should you buy now or wait?

RAM prices are still going up in 2026. They are just going up more slowly. TrendForce expects conventional DRAM contract prices to rise 13-18% quarter over quarter in the third quarter of 2026, and NAND flash contract prices to rise 10-15%, according to its July 3, 2026 forecast. Those are the smallest increases of the cycle so far.

Most coverage read that as the memory shortage easing. It is not. The increases shrank because buyers stopped paying, not because anyone made more chips. That distinction decides whether waiting saves you money, and the answer is different for RAM, for storage, and for a whole laptop.

What is actually happening to memory prices in 2026

Memory prices in 2026 are decelerating at record-high levels. DRAM is the fast working memory in a PC, phone or server, sold as DDR5 sticks in desktops and soldered LPDDR5X in laptops and phones. NAND flash is the non-volatile storage inside SSDs, memory cards and phone storage.

Both sit near the top of their price range. TrendForce attributes the smaller third-quarter increases to two things: customers in consumer markets such as PCs and smartphones "reaching their affordability limit", and a high comparison base after quarters of steep rises. Tom's Hardware reported the same read on the market, noting that PC makers built up client SSD inventory during the first half of 2026 and are refusing another round of increases.

Retail buyers feel something harsher than the contract numbers. Module makers buy chips and resell them, so their prices move faster. Taiwanese module maker ADATA reportedly expects third-quarter DRAM prices up 20-30% and NAND up 35-40%. Contract prices are what manufacturers pay under long-term deals. The sticker on a retail DDR5 kit tracks the module market instead.

Why the slowdown is demand destruction, not more supply

Nothing has been added to supply. Memory makers moved their advanced capacity to AI, and that capacity is not coming back on a price signal.

HBM is high-bandwidth memory, the stacked DRAM that sits next to an AI accelerator such as an Nvidia GPU. A Micron executive has said HBM consumes roughly three times the wafer capacity of standard DRAM per gigabyte, as Network World reported. Every gigabyte sold to a data center therefore costs three gigabytes of the consumer supply that would otherwise exist.

The rest of the picture is equally structural. SK hynix told investors its HBM, DRAM and NAND capacity is "essentially sold out" for 2026. Micron exited the consumer memory market to serve enterprise and AI customers. Samsung's global marketing president, Wonjin Lee, put it plainly: "In 2026, there's going to be issues around semiconductor supplies, and it's going to affect everyone, not just Samsung."

So the price curve bent for a demand reason. Consumers hit a wall. Supply did not move. A shortage that eases because people gave up buying is not a shortage that ends when they start again.

What each component costs, and where the pressure sits

The market is not one market. Here is where each part of it stands going into the third quarter of 2026.

Component	Q3 2026 direction	Source	Verdict
DDR5 desktop RAM	Up 13-18% QoQ	TrendForce (July 3, 2026)	Buy now
SSDs and NAND	Up 10-15% QoQ	TrendForce (July 3, 2026)	Wait if you can
Retail DRAM modules	Up 20-30% QoQ	ADATA, via TrendForce (July 8, 2026)	Buy now
Laptops and prebuilt PCs	ASPs up 4-8%	IDC downside scenarios (2026)	Buy now
Phones	ASPs up 3-8%	IDC downside scenarios (2026)	Depends on the model

Gartner has projected DRAM prices rising 47% across 2026 on undersupply in both current and legacy DRAM, per the same Gartner projection. Samsung raised its 32GB DDR5 module price from $149 to $239, a 60% increase. Storage analyst Thomas Coughlin projected NAND demand growing 20-22% in 2026 against supply growth of just 15-17%, writing in Forbes that the gap leads to shortages.

Should you buy DDR5 RAM now or wait?

Buy DDR5 now if you need it in the next year. Waiting has no mechanism to help you.

The capacity that used to make consumer DDR5 is making HBM memory for AI accelerators, and that reallocation is contracted years out. Nothing in the third-quarter data suggests a reversal. A slower rate of increase still means a higher price next quarter than this one.

One caveat is worth pricing in. Buy the capacity you actually need rather than the capacity you might want in 2029. At current prices, over-buying RAM as insurance is an expensive bet on a market that could look different by then.

Should you buy an SSD now or wait?

Storage is the one place where waiting is defensible. SSD pricing is the softest corner of this market.

PC manufacturers stockpiled client SSDs through the first half of 2026, so they enter the third quarter with inventory and leverage. Tom's Hardware reported that suppliers have grown more flexible in contract negotiations as a result. NAND's 10-15% forecast increase is also the lowest of the major categories.

That flexibility is narrow, though. Enterprise SSD demand from AI infrastructure is still climbing, and Coughlin's supply-versus-demand gap has not closed. If a drive fails or a build is blocked, buy it. If the upgrade is optional, a quarter of patience is a reasonable gamble here in a way it is not for RAM.

Should you buy a laptop or prebuilt PC now or wait?

Buy a laptop or prebuilt PC now if the purchase is happening within six months. The price increases are already scheduled.

Memory and storage are a rising share of what a system costs to build, and that is flowing into sticker prices. IDC has sketched two downside scenarios for the year: in the moderate case the PC market contracts 4.9% with average selling prices up 4-6%, and in the pessimistic case it contracts 8.9% with prices up 6-8%, per IDC's memory-shortage analysis. IDC frames these as risk scenarios, not official forecasts.

There is a practical tactic here. Configurations priced before the latest memory increases are still sitting on shelves at US and European retailers. Those are the deals, and they disappear as stock rotates. Buyers in the EU and UK should remember that VAT sits on top of any increase, so a 15% wholesale rise lands harder on the final receipt.

What this means for smartphone prices

Smartphone prices are moving for the same reason PC prices are. Phones use LPDDR5X and UFS storage, and both come from the constrained pool.

Smartphone average selling prices rise 3-5% in the moderate case and 6-8% in the pessimistic one, with the market contracting 2.9% or 5.2% respectively (IDC downside scenarios, 2026). This is the mechanism behind flagship pricing news that gets reported as a vendor decision. The Pixel 11 price increase is really a RAM shortage working its way to a spec sheet, and the same force is shaping smartphone prices across the industry.

A phone maker facing those input costs either raises the price or cuts the memory. Watch the base storage tier on this year's flagships, because that is where the cut usually lands. Consider a model that held its price while dropping from 256GB to 128GB at the entry tier: that is a price increase wearing a different label.

When will memory prices actually fall?

Not in 2026, and probably not in 2027. Analysts tracking the market do not see normal pricing returning before 2028.

The reasoning is capacity, not sentiment. New fabs take years, HBM demand keeps absorbing wafer starts, and the makers with spare capacity have chosen the higher-margin customer. SK hynix being sold out for 2026 is the clearest signal available: the supply for this year is already spoken for.

Consider what that means for planning. If you are budgeting a build, a fleet refresh or a phone upgrade, treat today's price as the floor rather than a spike to be waited out. That is an unusual thing to say about computer hardware, and it is what makes this cycle different from a normal shortage.

Frequently asked questions

Will RAM prices go down in 2026?

No. TrendForce forecasts conventional DRAM contract prices rising 13-18% quarter over quarter in the third quarter of 2026. The rate of increase is slowing, but prices are still climbing from record highs. Analysts tracking DRAM and NAND do not expect a return to normal pricing before 2028.

Why are RAM and SSD prices so high right now?

AI data centers absorbed the supply. Memory makers shifted advanced capacity to high-bandwidth memory and server DRAM, which pay far more per wafer. A Micron executive has said HBM uses roughly three times the wafer capacity of standard DRAM per gigabyte, so each AI sale removes several times its volume from the consumer pool.

Is it better to buy RAM now or wait until next year?

Buy now. There is no supply increase scheduled that would lower DDR5 prices in 2026 or 2027, and each quarter has ended higher than the one before it. Waiting only works when a price spike is temporary, and this one is driven by contracted capacity reallocation rather than a short-term demand shock.

How much are laptop and PC prices going up in 2026?

IDC's downside scenarios (2026) put PC average selling prices up 4-6% in the moderate case and 6-8% in the pessimistic case, with market contraction of 4.9% or 8.9%. Memory and storage are a growing share of a system's build cost, so budget and mid-range machines feel it hardest. EU and UK buyers pay VAT on top of those increases.

Does the memory shortage affect phone prices too?

Yes. Phones use LPDDR5X memory and UFS storage from the same constrained supply. IDC projects smartphone average selling prices rising 3-5% in its moderate scenario and 6-8% in its pessimistic one. Manufacturers often respond by holding the price and reducing the base storage tier instead.